empty
09.02.2022 08:58 PM
US trade data reveals massive shortfall in China's purchases

The US Department of Commerce report says US goods exports to China fell in December, cementing a massive shortfall in Beijing's two-year purchase commitments under the "Phase 1" trade deal negotiated by former President Donald Trump's administration.

The US Census Bureau said on Tuesday that the United States' 2021 goods trade deficit with China rose by $45 billion, or 14.5%, to $355.3 billion, the largest since a 2018 record of $418.2 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

The 2020 gap was $310.3 billion, a 10-year low driven by coronavirus pandemic lockdowns.

Notably, the global US trade deficit in 2021 surged 27% to a record $859.1 billion as businesses restocked inventories to meet robust demand.

The data showed China by far missed its commitments to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of US farm and manufactured goods, energy and services above 2017 levels, the year before a bitter trade war embroiled the world's two largest economies.

The purchase commitments were the centerpiece of Trump's Phase 1 trade deal with China, which launched in mid-February 2020 and halted a threatened escalation of tariffs.

The deal also called for China to grant increased US market access to its agricultural biotechnology and financial services sectors and mandated some intellectual property protection improvements.

Beijing has sought to lift tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods that remained in place under the Phase 1 deal.

An analysis of final 2021 Census trade data compiled by economist Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics showed China met just 57% of its full two-year goods and services targets.

According to him, Beijing's purchases of the goods, energy and services targeted in the Phase 1 agreement were not even enough to return to China's baseline 2017 level of purchases of U.S. imports after retaliatory tariffs had eroded them in 2018 and 2019.

"Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump's deal had promised," Bown said in his analysis.

The data for agricultural products, traditionally a vulnerable area for the PRC, look slightly better. China exceeded the 2017 baseline in agricultural purchases, but only reached 83% of the $73.9 billion two-year farm goods target.

Services exports to China, which had been a bright spot for US trade, fell sharply as the pandemic slashed Chinese tourism and business travel to the United States and cut the flow of Chinese students to US universities, reaching only 52% of the target.

"We have engaged the PRC (People's Republic of China) on its shortfalls for months, but have not seen real signs towards making good on the purchase commitments and our patience is wearing thin," Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative's office, said in an e-mailed statement.

"Regardless of how these negotiations conclude, the fact remains that the Phase One Agreement did not address the core problems with the PRC's state-led economy," Hodge said, adding that the Biden administration would "shape the environment around China" by building U.S. competitiveness, diversifying markets and limiting the impact of China's "harmful practices."

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China's embassy in Washington, said China has been working on implementation of the agreement "despite the impact of COVID-19, global economic recession and supply chain disruptions."

"The Phase 1 deal benefits China and the U.S. and the whole world," he added.

The agreement contains a clause that the two parties "project that the trajectory of increases" in China's purchases "will continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025" without specific targets.

Former USTR chief of staff Jamieson Greer, who helped negotiate the Phase 1 deal, said that clause could be used to pursue "retrospective enforcement for what's been missed."

"It's in the interest of the administration to pursue enforcement," said Greer, a trade lawyer with King and Spalding.

"With a few kind of narrow exceptions, we haven't really seen that much enforcement" on trade matters from the Biden administration, he added.

Indeed, the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the provinces is taking on alarming proportions, especially as the Chinese have no sustained immunity due to the strict implementation of the so-called "zero plan", which calls for the complete suppression of outbreaks in affected areas.

Back in late November, the Chinese government suggested to stock up on essential supplies in order to get through the winter in possible isolation. With this in mind, it is likely that consumption levels in the country are falling.

So, there is still a chance to catch up as economies recover.

On the other hand, China's policy is becoming more and more isolationist.

At the beginning and middle of 2021, many discussed the conflict over the political and economic relations between the two countries, but another wave of Covid-19 ended the escalation. However, the omicron epidemic is likely to subside in spring, at least in the US, and Americans are already itching to produce (and sell) more. So, perhaps China will continue its policy of soft evasion, which is traditional for Asian countries.

Consequently, experts' forecasts of the trade balance, given the volume of the agreement, for next year may be overstated, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar.

Meanwhile, the US may impose trade sanctions on the PRC, thereby exacerbating already difficult relations and forcing investors to choose trading regions again.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

5月23日美國市場新聞摘要

5月23日對S&P 500的展望顯示,市場在接近5,908的阻力位下方進行整固。在有利的條件下,該指數有可能上升至6,318點,可能會引發更廣泛上升趨勢的新一波。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:16 2025-05-23 UTC+2

科技蓬勃發展:Snowflake 和 Alphabet 表現亮眼,太陽能產業卻走下坡路

週四,美國股市收盤幾乎沒有變化,從早前的跌幅中反彈,因債券收益率從近期高點回落。這一變化發生在眾議院批准總統唐納德·特朗普的稅務和開支立法之後。

Thomas Frank 11:09 2025-05-23 UTC+2

由於Wolfspeed、Target和UnitedHealth拖累市場,道瓊斯指數下跌近2%

指數:道瓊斯指數重挫1.91%,標普500指數下跌1.61%,納斯達克指數下跌1.41%。報導稱Wolfspeed可能破產後,其股價大幅下滑。

13:01 2025-05-22 UTC+2

5月22日美國市場新聞摘要

Google 的股價顯示出穩健的上漲,由於技術信號看漲。投資者預期將會持續上升,目標水準設在 176.80、186.27 和 194.41,這使得該股票對於中期買入策略來說頗具吸引力。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:44 2025-05-22 UTC+2

道瓊指數下跌近2%,因Wolfspeed、Target和UnitedHealth將市場推入危機

所有目光現在都集中在美國眾議院即將對總統唐納德·川普的稅收提案進行投票。投資者感到不安:該立法預計將使聯邦債務增加3.8萬億美元,將總負擔推近40萬億美元。

Thomas Frank 10:06 2025-05-22 UTC+2

英鎊陷阱:為何英國通脹比美國經濟衰退更令人恐懼

貨幣市場正展開新篇章,而英鎊似乎正在撰寫這一章節。4月的通脹數據令投資者感到震驚:英國的消費者物價指數(CPI)環比上升了1.2%——這是自2022年4月以來的最大增幅。

Anna Zotova 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

指數下跌、Tesla大漲、Julius Baer暴跌:市場中的鮮明對比之日

基準股票指數正在下跌: * 道瓊工業平均指數 -0.27%, * 標普500指數 -0.39%, * 納斯達克指數 -0.38% 在馬斯克宣佈願意回任CEO後,Tesla股價上漲。Home Depot在公佈第一季度銷售報告後逆轉漲勢。

12:40 2025-05-21 UTC+2

5月21日美國市場新聞摘要

在經歷了驚人的8.6萬億美元漲勢之後,美國市場顯示出疲憊跡象。儘管有負面的宏觀經濟指標和近期美國信用評級被調降,Morgan Stanley仍對S&P 500保持大膽的預測,目標設定在今年內達到6,500點。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:23 2025-05-21 UTC+2

美元不再稱王:您需要了解的資訊

歷史上,美元在戰爭、制裁和銀行危機等危機中一直是主要的避風港;投資者傾向於將美元視為最終的安全網。 到了2025年,情況已極大地改變。

Anna Zotova 00:59 2025-05-21 UTC+2

5月20日美國市場新聞摘要

儘管美國的信用評級被降低和國債收益率上升,散戶投資者仍然是股票市場中的活躍買家。淨購買額飆升至創紀錄的40億美元,這表明他們對股票市場長期韌性的信心。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:16 2025-05-20 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.