empty
20.11.2024 04:46 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2024

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0532 and began rising toward the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0662. However, the bulls were once again unable to reach the target level, and today they have lost momentum—the pair is moving back toward the 1.0532 level. I still believe that the likelihood of closing below this level and continuing the decline toward 1.0420 is higher.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the previous peak, while the ongoing downward wave easily broke the last two lows. This indicates that the "bearish" trend remains intact. Bulls have completely lost control of the market. Regaining control would require substantial effort, which they are unlikely to achieve soon. To reverse the current trend, the pair would need to rise above the 1.0800 level, which seems improbable in the short term.

On Tuesday, the news had little impact on traders. The final inflation report for October in the Eurozone matched the preliminary estimate. U.S. building permits and housing starts for October were also in line with forecasts. Consequently, traders lacked significant market-moving information, and the euro lacked opportunities for growth. For several days, bulls have struggled to lift the pair from its recent lows. However, bears have consistently regained control, and their advantage is evident. I do not see any events on this week's calendar that could significantly support the bulls. Christine Lagarde's speech today is unlikely to differ from her Monday remarks.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 100% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0603, rebounded, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, a "bearish" divergence appeared on the CCI and RSI indicators. These signals suggest that the euro's decline has resumed and may continue for several weeks. The first target is the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0436.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

According to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, speculators added 103 long positions while closing 14,113 short positions last week. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category has turned "bearish." Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.

For eight consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their exposure to the euro. In my view, this indicates the emergence of a new "bearish" trend or, at the very least, a strong global correction. The primary factor for the dollar's earlier decline—expectations of FOMC policy easing—has played out, and the market no longer has reasons to sell the dollar. While new factors may emerge over time, further strengthening of the U.S. dollar appears more likely. Technical analysis also supports the beginning of a long-term "bearish" trend. Therefore, I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT report does not suggest a shift toward a "bullish" trend.

News Calendar for the USA and Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech (13:00 UTC)

On November 20, the economic calendar contains only one entry. Today's news is expected to have a limited impact on market sentiment.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling could be considered if the pair rebounded from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662. The target has been reached. Closing below this level supported holding sell positions targeting 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which have been achieved. Today, a rebound from 1.0603 suggests the possibility of opening new sell positions targeting 1.0532 and 1.0420.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1003 to 1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603 to 1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin – Technical Analysis Overview

In January, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, approaching the psychological level of $110,000. However, there was no significant upward momentum during the month. This stagnation, along with the detachment

Evangelos Poulakis 23:15 2025-02-02 UTC+2

#SPX – Weekly Results and Prospects

January ended with a bullish candle, establishing a new all-time high at 6127.41. However, the index only reached this high with an upper shadow, failing to close above previous levels

Evangelos Poulakis 23:15 2025-02-02 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for January 31, 2025: sell below 1.0417 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we expect that the EUR/USD pair will continue its fall in the next few days and could reach the 1.0253 level

Dimitrios Zappas 14:25 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for January 31, 2025: buy above $2,780 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 2,797 with a bullish bias above the 21 SMA and within the uptrend channel forming since January 13. Gold

Dimitrios Zappas 14:17 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Video analysis for January 31, 2025

youtube.com/watch?v=IqV5o4EhCZw

Petar Jacimovic 14:04 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2025

On Thursday, EUR/USD attempted to consolidate above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0437, but the attempt failed. The bears launched a new offensive, though it lacked strength and confidence

Samir Klishi 13:00 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 31, 2025

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued its sideways movement on Thursday, trading between two key zones. There were no valid trading signals on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, as the price

Samir Klishi 12:53 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Forex forecast 31/01/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD,USDX, Gold and Bitcoin

Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:33 Totay's key events: German Unemployment Change, German CPI, Core PCE Price Index, U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, Employment Cost Index 02:45 EUR/USD 04:15 GBP/USD

Sebastian Seliga 11:29 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2025

At yesterday's meeting, the European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by the expected 0.25%. In its accompanying statement, the central bank emphasized its commitment to a restrictive policy

Laurie Bailey 04:01 2025-01-31 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 31, 2025

The British pound has not outpaced the euro in its gradual decline following the recent European Central Bank meeting. It has confirmed its consolidation below the balance and MACD indicator

Laurie Bailey 04:01 2025-01-31 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.