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25.03.2025 11:00 AM
Why Bitcoin's fall not over yet
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Despite the recent growth of the cryptocurrency market, larger upward prospects and a return of Bitcoin to the $100,000 mark remain unrealistic for now. This is evidenced by data from Glassnode, which shows that the unrealized losses of short-term BTC holders are not yet significant enough to lead to mass capitulation and a market reversal. For a full market cleansing, the market would ideally need to go lower first, and only then can we seriously talk about the continuation of a medium-term bullish trend.

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On the other hand, the lack of significant panic among short-term investors indicates that most of them are willing to hold their positions, awaiting further growth. This creates a certain level of market resilience to sudden shocks. However, macroeconomic factors that significantly impact the cryptocurrency market should also be taken into account. The expected continuation of high interest rates by central banks may limit the inflow of new investments into risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, regulatory risks remain a concern. Stricter controls by governments and financial regulators could negatively affect the prospects of further growth in the crypto market.

Overall, the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is characterized by moderate optimism, supported by the resilience of short-term holders. However, achieving higher price levels requires a combination of favorable macroeconomic conditions and a reduction in regulatory risks.

Crypto enthusiast Arthur Hayes stated in his recent essay that Bitcoin could rise to $110,000 before testing the $76,500 level again. The growth driver will be the fact that the Federal Reserve is nearly completing its QT (quantitative tightening) by April 1, with a potential shift to QE (quantitative easing) to stimulate the economy. The Fed's balance sheet tapering takes liquidity out of the market, putting pressure on asset prices. Halting this process and potentially transitioning to QE will serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's upward movement and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Hayes' opinion certainly sparks interest in the crypto community, but it's important to remember that this is just one possible scenario. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, and it is influenced by many factors beyond the Fed's monetary policy.

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As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $87,500 level, which would open the direct path to $89,500, and from there, the $91,600 level is within reach. The farthest target would be the peak around $92,900, and overcoming this level would signal a return to a medium-term bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin drop, buyers are expected at about $85,000. A return of the instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $83,200, with the farthest target at $81,500.

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Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above the $2,067 level opens the direct path to $2,100. The farthest target would be the one-year high around $2,143. Once this level is surpassed, this would signal a return to a medium-term bull market. If Ethereum falls, buyers are likely to enter at $2,032. A return of the instrument below this area could quickly push ETH down to around $2,000, with the farthest target at $1,974.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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