Forex Analysis & Reviews: 15.04.2025 - What to Pay Attention to on...

15.04.2025 06:29 AM

What to Pay Attention to on April 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Quite a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, but under the current circumstances, macroeconomic data mean little to the market. They might have a short-term local impact on the pair's movement, but everyone understands that the U.S. economy is not nearly bad enough to justify the dollar losing hundreds or even thousands of pips.

Today, ZEW economic sentiment indices and industrial production data will be published in the Eurozone. In the UK, we'll see unemployment data, jobless claims, and wage reports. The British figures could influence the Bank of England's monetary policy stance—but who is even paying attention to that stance right now? The dollar continues to fall even amid the Federal Reserve's relatively hawkish positioning.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point discussing fundamental events other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline could continue indefinitely. We recommend that traders focus on statements from top officials of the largest countries and economic alliances regarding tariffs. Trump said that any response to his actions aimed at "eliminating unfairness" would be met with harsh retaliation through new sanctions and tariffs.

At the same time, the U.S. president introduced a 90-day grace period for all countries except China, during which a uniform 10% import tariff will apply. According to Trump, this period will be used for trade negotiations. However, we'd like to remind you that the chances of reaching trade agreements with the EU and China are extremely low. Tariffs on China continue to rise, and there is no reason to believe China will be the first to seek a compromise. U.S. trade relations with China and the Eurozone matter most to the market.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may fluctuate in either direction. The market remains in a state of panic and chaos, so there is no logic to the current price movements. News related to the trade war emerges daily, and it's impossible to predict when it will appear—or forecast Trump's next move.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.