empty
06.01.2025 12:05 PM
What to Expect This Week? (Resumption of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Declines Expected)

The new week of the new year begins on a cautious note. Last week concluded with attempts at stock market recovery and a noticeable, though localized, strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, it is too early to claim this movement could transform into a stable trend.

In Monday's trading session, the dollar is weakening, while gold prices are significantly dropping amid mixed dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and movements in futures for major U.S. stock indices.

As Donald Trump's inauguration approaches, market tension increases. The uncertainty surrounding his upcoming presidency—whether he will immediately launch his new economic policies or not—adds to the strain. Meanwhile, investors are focused on key labor market data from the U.S., which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Key Events of the Week:

  1. Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings Expected to rise strongly from 7.744 million in the previous period to 7.770 million in November. Such growth signals a potential recovery in the U.S. labor market after its decline since mid-2022.
  2. Wednesday: ADP Employment Report Forecasted to show a smaller increase of 131,000 jobs in December compared to 146,000 in November. While the report's market impact is not always consistent, significant deviations from expectations could lead to localized stock market movements, notably on Forex.
  3. Fed Officials' Speeches: Several Fed members are scheduled to speak this week, likely reiterating a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025. Current projections anticipate only two rate cuts of 0.25% each this year, a substantial reduction from the September forecast of a 1.0% total easing. If the December meeting minutes confirm this stance, it would support the dollar. The currency has already gained strength ahead of Trump's inauguration on January 20, as his proposed economic policies—such as higher import tariffs, immigration restrictions, and overall economic stimulation—are seen as inflationary.
  4. Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims The data, remaining within reasonable bounds, will likely not exert significant pressure on the overall labor market picture.
  5. Friday: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings Expected to show a decline in December job growth to 154,000 from November's 227,000, along with a slowdown in monthly wage growth from 0.4% to 0.3%.

Weekly Outlook:

If U.S. labor market data meet or exceed consensus forecasts and Fed comments maintain their dovish tone consistent with December's meeting summary, the dollar is likely to strengthen further. Additionally, local stock markets may continue their recovery attempts. However, overall market dynamics are unlikely to be energetic before Trump's inauguration on January 20.

Daily Forecast:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD

The pair is supported by expectations of rising eurozone inflation. If inflation data confirm an increase to 2.4% from 2.2% year-on-year or slightly higher, the pair could rise to 1.0400. However, this potential increase is unlikely to be a turning point, as the eurozone remains in recession. Moreover, Trump's upcoming economic policies could strongly support the dollar. Considering this, the pair may reverse and decline to the recent low of 1.0245 after a possible rise to 1.0400.

GBP/USD

The pair has partially recovered and is trading below the resistance level of 1.2485. Its inability to surpass this level, coupled with positive dollar news, could lead to a reversal and renewed decline toward 1.2350.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Following the release of UK consumer inflation data, which came in above expectations, the GBP/JPY pair slightly pared back its intraday losses. However, it failed to attract significant buying interest

Irina Yanina 11:25 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Will Global Central Banks Continue to Cut Interest Rates? (Bitcoin May Resume Growth and USD/JPY May Decline)

Among the economically developed nations—those that belong to the Western wing of the global economy—there is an important rule: a target of 2% inflation, specifically consumer inflation. Achieving this target

Pati Gani 09:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Market: Do or Die!

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The S&P 500 rally from the April lows—adding $8.6 trillion in market cap—often appeared irrational. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve's

Marek Petkovich 08:23 2025-05-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 21: The Rollercoaster Continues

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined, unlike on Monday. While the euro's movement required searching for reasons behind the dollar's drop, the technical picture for the pound is straightforward

Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 21: The Theater of Chaos and Absurdity Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sluggishly on Tuesday, which was not surprising given the absence of news. Monday didn't bring much in the way of important news either

Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-05-21 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 21? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. However, the UK inflation report holds significant importance for the market, or rather, used to . As we can see, traders continue

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-05-21 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains a Wait-and-See Approach

The market expects active measures from the U.S. central bank, while Donald Trump keeps demanding that Jerome Powell cut interest rates. It's worth noting that Powell cannot make such decisions

Chin Zhao 00:41 2025-05-21 UTC+2

The Dollar Regains Its Spirit

As the CFTC report showed, investors are still not very impressed that the US and China have managed to reduce trade tensions and take a pause for negotiations

Kuvat Raharjo 00:26 2025-05-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Weak Dollar Meets Indecisive Euro

The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the 1.1200 level, reflecting the overall weakening of the U.S. dollar. The "bearish attack" we witnessed last week ended in failure. EUR/USD sellers were

Irina Manzenko 19:35 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Euro Exhausts Bullish Momentum

Inflation in the eurozone remained unchanged in April compared to March, fully in line with forecasts—2.2% year-over-year for the headline index, and 2.7% year-over-year for the core index. This inflation

Kuvat Raharjo 19:16 2025-05-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.