empty
13.02.2025 01:30 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 13th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0440 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A rise and false breakout at 1.0440 provided a strong short entry point, resulting in a 30-point decline. Buying at the 1.0411 support level on a similar signal secured about 15 points in profit. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

Long Position Strategy for EUR/USD:

German CPI data met economists' expectations, preventing the euro from extending its gains in the first half of the day. As a result, the pair remained within a sideways range, with only minor adjustments to key support levels.

In the second half of the session, markets will focus on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), both overall and core, as well as the weekly jobless claims report. Stronger-than-expected figures could increase pressure on the euro, while weaker data may spark a new bullish movement.

If EUR/USD declines due to strong data, I will look for a false breakout at 1.0395 to enter a long position, targeting resistance at 1.0440—which has remained a key barrier. A break and retest of this level will confirm a buying opportunity, pushing EUR/USD towards 1.0468. The final target will be 1.0495, where I plan to lock in profits.

If EUR/USD drops further and no buying interest appears at 1.0395, buyers may lose momentum, allowing sellers to drive the pair to 1.0353. Only after a false breakout at this level will I consider long positions. I also plan to buy immediately on a bounce from 1.0321, aiming for a 30-35 point intraday correction.

Short Position Strategy for EUR/USD:

Sellers successfully defended 1.0440, leading to a significant euro sell-off in the morning session. Moving forward, caution is required since U.S. inflation data could surprise the market.

A false breakout at 1.0440, similar to the morning setup, will confirm the presence of strong sellers, providing a short entry opportunity targeting support at 1.0395. This level also coincides with the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which currently support the bulls.

A break below 1.0395, especially with strong U.S. economic data, followed by a retest from below, will offer another short setup, aiming for a new low at 1.0353, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The final downside target will be 1.0321, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the session and sellers fail to act at 1.0440, buyers may push the pair higher. In this case, I will delay short entries until 1.0468, looking for a false breakout. If the pair reaches 1.0495, I will short immediately, targeting a 30-35 point pullback.

This image is no longer relevant

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis:

The February 4 COT report showed an increase in both long and short positions. More traders showed interest in buying the euro after concerns over a potentially aggressive U.S. trade war under Donald Trump eased. However, these data do not yet reflect the strong U.S. labor market report or the new steel and aluminum tariffs, suggesting that the outlook remains uncertain.

Risky asset purchases should be approached cautiously, as the trade war is just beginning. Long non-commercial positions increased by 8,894 to 162,554. Short non-commercial positions increased by 904 to 221,168. The gap between long and short positions narrowed by 3,058.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages

EUR/USD is trading above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling further potential upside.

Note: The author uses H1 chart moving averages, which may differ from traditional daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

If EUR/USD declines, the lower Bollinger Band near 1.0385 will serve as support.

Technical Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA) – identifies the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise.
    • 50-period MA (yellow on the chart)
    • 30-period MA (green on the chart)
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – identifies trend momentum.
    • Fast EMA: 12-period
    • Slow EMA: 26-period
    • SMA: 9-period
  • Bollinger Bands (BB) – measures volatility and overbought/oversold conditions.
    • 20-period BB
  • Non-commercial traders – speculators, including retail traders, hedge funds, and institutional investors, using futures markets for speculative purposes.
  • Long non-commercial positions – total long open positions among non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions – total short open positions among non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position – the difference between long and short positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Buy
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD Throughout Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement, and at first glance, it might seem that a new uptrend is forming

Paolo Greco 05:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair surged upward on Monday with renewed strength. But what justified this move, given that Monday's macroeconomic and fundamental

Paolo Greco 05:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 20: The Pound Keeps Seizing Every Opportunity

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, which began last week. The price successfully broke through both Ichimoku indicator lines, so from a technical standpoint, the trend

Paolo Greco 04:09 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 20: The Dollar Is Looking for Reasons to Fall

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a relatively substantial rise on Monday. We believe there was no macroeconomic or fundamental justification for such a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar that

Paolo Greco 04:09 2025-05-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined significantly in price, despite no macroeconomic or fundamental reasons. However, the downward trend

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 19: The Pound Feels Comfortable in a Flat Market

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair mainly traded downward throughout the day but closed with only a minor decline. This was mostly because the dollar weakened during the Asian session

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 19: The Dollar Struggles to Grow, but Still Does

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a slight decline on Friday. Although the 5-minute chart might suggest the pair spent the entire day in a downtrend, the U.S. dollar gained only

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-05-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also traded lower, although there were no objective reasons. While the euro maintains a downward trend

Paolo Greco 00:35 2025-05-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair showed minimal upward movement; however, the 5-minute timeframe indicates this was largely a sideways move

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions throughout Thursday. The macroeconomic background was rich, but it had no decisive impact

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.