empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
18.03.2025 11:03 AM
GBP/USD – March 18: Will the FOMC Help the Dollar?
Open trading account Open demo account

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.2931 level on Monday and resumed its upward movement toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3003. A rejection from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a slight decline toward 1.2931. A break and consolidation above 1.3003 would indicate continued growth toward the next level at 1.3151.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave surpassed the previous peak. This confirms that the bullish trend is still forming. The British pound has recently shown very strong growth, perhaps even excessive. The fundamental backdrop is not strong enough to justify such aggressive bullish action. However, most traders refuse to buy the dollar regardless of economic data because Donald Trump continuously imposes new tariffs, which will eventually harm U.S. economic growth and that of many other countries.

Monday's fundamental backdrop was weak, but bullish traders took advantage of one of the few opportunities available—a weak U.S. retail sales report. However, the market is now shifting its focus to more important events this week, namely the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Judging by the continued decline of the U.S. dollar, bears are not expecting any positive news.

Traders expect the FOMC to soften its monetary policy rhetoric, given expectations of an economic slowdown in the coming quarters. However, I do not believe the Fed will aggressively ease policy, as U.S. inflation remains elevated. As for the Bank of England, interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, and the UK economy is not showing clear signs of acceleration or slowdown. Trump has not imposed tariffs on the UK, and there is no fundamental reason for the British economy to grow significantly.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the bullish trend continues. I do not expect a significant decline in GBP/USD unless the pair closes below the rising channel. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence, but so far, it has had no impact on bulls' positions. A rejection from 1.2994 could lead to a moderate pullback toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861, but bears are absent from the market.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The Non-commercial category of traders became even more bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 12,920, while short positions increased by only 2,301. Bears have lost their market advantage, with the gap between long and short positions now nearly 30,000 in favor of bulls (95,000 vs. 66,000).

In my opinion, the British pound still has room for a decline, but recent events could force the market into a long-term shift. Over the past three months, the number of long positions decreased from 98,000 to 94,000, while short positions dropped from 78,000 to 66,000. However, the more significant trend is that in the last six weeks, long positions have surged from 59,000 to 95,000, while short positions have fallen from 81,000 to 66,000. Let's not forget—this has been "six weeks under Trump."

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK

  • U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC)

On Tuesday, the economic calendar includes three events, but all of them are second-tier data. The overall market impact is expected to be weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Short positions were possible on a rejection from 1.2994 on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931 and 1.2865. These trades can remain open, but bearish activity in the market is minimal. Long positions are viable on a rebound from 1.2931 on the hourly chart or after a breakout above 1.3003, with a target at 1.3151.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis – March 18th The wave structure for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous yet generally clear. At present, there is a high probability that a long-term downward trend is forming. Wave 5 has taken
Chin Zhao
19:45 2025-03-18 +02:00
1015
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis – March 18th The wave structure on the four-hour chart is at risk of transforming into a more complex formation. A new downward wave structure began forming on September 25, taking the shape
Chin Zhao
19:43 2025-03-18 +02:00
1345
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD – March 18th: Christine Lagarde Warns the U.S.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair once again moved toward the 1.0944 level, but this time, bulls failed to reach this target. As a result, no new trading signals were generated
Samir Klishi 10:30 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Forex forecast 18/03/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, SP500 and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful
Sebastian Seliga 10:16 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Instrument, Tuesday March 18, 2025.

In the 4-hour chart of the Gold commodity instrument, Convergence is visible, which confirms that in the near future Gold has the potential to strengthen even though because the Stochastic
Arief Makmur 08:17 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Tuesday March 18, 2025

If we look at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/JPY cross currency pair appears to be moving harmoniously in the Bullish Pitchfork channel, which indicates that the bias of EUR/JPY
Arief Makmur 08:01 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for March 18, 2025

The extended Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy is approaching, so we cannot yet conclude that yesterday's 0.64% rise in the S&P 500, the 0.32% drop in the dollar index
Laurie Bailey 03:37 2025-03-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for March 18, 2025

On Monday, the pound rose by 53 pips and is now testing the resistance level at 1.3001. A breakout above this level would propel the pound's growth toward 1.3101. However
Laurie Bailey 03:37 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for March 18, 2025

This morning, the yen reached the 149.38 level, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This level is significant as it suggests a potential reversal into a new wave
Laurie Bailey 03:37 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for March 17-19, 2025: sell below $85,000 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

The key point for selling Bitcoin is to wait for it to reach $87,500 to $88,500, both of which could be good points to sell with short-term targets around $80,000
Dimitrios Zappas 15:16 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for March 17-19, 2025: buy above 1.0875 (+1/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.0895, above the 21 SMA, and above the 8/8 Murray, with a bullish bias. The euro is expected
Dimitrios Zappas 14:56 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 00:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
Global Market Dynamics: China, the US and AI Are Driving New Trends
06:16 2025-03-18
News
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-03-20 UTC--4
No Major Surprises Expected from the Fed Meeting (Anticipating a Sharp Drop in EUR/USD and Continued Cautious Gold Price Growth)
09:48 2025-03-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 18. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:00 2025-03-18
Forecast
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-03-18 UTC--4
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 18: The Break is Over
05:04 2025-03-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 18. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:00 2025-03-18
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.