empty
01.04.2025 11:29 AM
GBP/USD. April 1. A Month of Sideways Movement and the Threat of New Tariffs

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade sideways on Monday. Currently, there is no dominance of either bulls or bears in the market. This has been the case for an entire month. The 1.2931 level is not strong, so it's not a point to look for trading opportunities.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation is completely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, a "bullish" trend is still forming. Most traders still do not want to buy the U.S. dollar regardless of economic data, since Donald Trump continues to introduce new tariffs that are expected to hurt U.S. and global economic growth in the future. For the bullish trend to start transforming into a bearish one, a consolidation below the 1.2865 level is needed.

There was virtually no fundamental background on Monday. While Germany released some reports, the UK had nothing noteworthy. In the U.S., the Chicago Business Activity Index came out better than expected – 47.6 vs. the forecast of 45.2. However, this report provided little support to the bears. Traders are currently hesitant to act because Donald Trump may announce new import tariffs for the U.S. today or tomorrow. No one knows what these tariffs will be, and trying to predict Trump's decisions is like reading tea leaves. Therefore, most traders prefer to wait for the official announcement of new tariff measures before making decisions. Waiting is currently the best strategy. This week, Trump mentioned that he is considering reciprocal tariffs for all countries globally, but he could easily change his stance. The market is on hold.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair maintains a bullish trend. A strong drop in the pound is unlikely unless there's a breakout below the ascending channel. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2994 will again work in favor of the dollar and a decline toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.2861. However, the bullish divergence on the CCI indicator allows for a slight upward movement. On the hourly chart, the pair is clearly range-bound.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,075, while short positions declined by 1,806. Bears have lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at nearly 44,000 in favor of the bulls: 109,000 vs. 65,000.

In my view, the pound still has potential for a decline, but recent developments could cause the market to reverse in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has grown from 98,000 to 109,000, while short positions decreased from 78,000 to 65,000. More importantly, over the last 8 weeks, long positions rose from 59,000 to 109,000, while shorts fell from 81,000 to 65,000.

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

  • UK – S&P Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
  • U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC)

On Tuesday, the economic events calendar includes four key releases, each of which could significantly influence market sentiment throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair is possible after a new rebound from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2931 and 1.2865, as the pair remains range-bound. Buying is possible after a rebound from the 1.2865 level, with targets at 1.2931 and 1.3003.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY Forecast for May 22, 2025

The USD/JPY pair has been declining for eight consecutive days — a pattern not seen since 2019. However, we recently saw two five-week declines in July 2024 and November–December 2023

Laurie Bailey 05:06 2025-05-22 UTC+2

XAG/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Silver is rising toward the $33.25 level, consolidating near the upper boundary of its familiar range. The emergence of buying on pullbacks, a recent rebound from the 100-day Simple Moving

Irina Yanina 18:43 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 21-25, 2025: sell below 1.1370 (200 EMA - overbought)

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1327, showing fading bullish strength. Having reached the top of the uptrend channel, EUR/USD is going through a technical

Dimitrios Zappas 17:50 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 21-25, 2025: buy above $3,281 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,304, above the 6/8 Murray level, and within the uptrend channel formed on May 14. Gold is expected to continue rising

Dimitrios Zappas 17:47 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 21, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to consolidate above the resistance zone of 1.1260–1.1282, which had previously triggered three pullbacks. As a result, the euro's upward movement continued

Samir Klishi 11:19 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 21, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday made two bounces from the support zone of 1.3344–1.3357, reversed in favor of the pound, and rose above the 1.3425 level

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Forex forecast 21/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 11:14 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday May 21, 2025.

Although on the 4-hour chart the AUD/JPY cross currency pair is weakening, it seems that this weakening is only a momentary correction as long as it does not break through

Arief Makmur 06:25 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Silver Commodity Instrument, Wednesday May 21, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart, the Silver commodity instrument appears to be showing Convergence between the Silver commodity instrument price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, so that in the near

Arief Makmur 06:25 2025-05-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for May 21, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro firmly consolidated above the daily-scale balance line indicator, closed the day above the resistance level of 1.1266, and began today with an upward move

Laurie Bailey 05:19 2025-05-21 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.