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07.04.2025 06:52 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
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At the moment, gold has halted its corrective decline from the all-time high reached last week.

The recent plunge in global financial markets, triggered by the mutual tariffs initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, is providing support to the safe-haven metal. Trump imposed tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, with China being hit especially hard by 54% duties. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce announced additional tariffs of 34% on all imports from the U.S. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the tariffs will not be postponed and will remain in effect in the coming days and weeks. Trump also stated that there would be no deal with China unless the trade deficit is resolved.

In addition, it was reported today that the People's Bank of China has increased its official gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month, which is also supporting investor interest in gold bullion.

The ongoing risk-off sentiment and expectations that the U.S. economic slowdown—triggered by the tariffs—could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle earlier than anticipated, are contributing to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. This, in turn, is weakening the dollar, which has been unable to recover from its multi-month lows.

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Persisting geopolitical risks are also increasing the appeal of gold. However, traders continue to liquidate their long positions to cover losses elsewhere, which in turn is capping gold's price growth and calls for some caution.

From a technical standpoint, the sharp decline in gold from its all-time high has stalled near the $2957 level, which previously served as a breakout point. The subsequent upward move has been capped at resistance near $3057, which has now become a key level—its breakout would pave the way toward the $3080 level, on the path back to the record high.

On the other hand, the psychological level of $3000 is acting as the first line of defense against an immediate drop, ahead of the $2980–2967 level or the low of the current correction. If this level is breached, the short-term bias will shift in favor of the bears, potentially triggering a deeper decline toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and beyond.

It is also worth noting that the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is losing momentum.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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