Forex Analysis & Reviews: 10.04.2025 - China Plans Emergency...

10.04.2025 12:07 PM

China Plans Emergency Meeting and a Strong Response to the U.S.

According to media reports, China's top leadership is set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss additional economic stimulus measures following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariff hikes.

Washington's move to impose a 125% tariff yesterday came as a surprise to many analysts and observers, especially since recent negotiations between the two countries had offered a glimmer of hope. Now, however, Beijing is forced to reconsider its economic strategy and respond quickly to the new challenges.

The meeting is expected to review various options for supporting domestic demand, easing the burden on export-oriented businesses, and stabilizing financial markets. Potential measures include tax and fee reductions for businesses, increased government investment in infrastructure projects, and expanded lending. At the same time, China holds sufficient reserves and tools to cushion the negative impact of the U.S. tariffs.

The emergency meeting will also focus on supporting housing construction, consumer spending, and technological innovation. Other government agencies, including the financial regulator, are also scheduled to convene to discuss further steps to stimulate the economy and stabilize the markets.

Clearly, these planned meetings highlight Beijing's growing concern over the damage caused by the escalating trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. On Monday, China announced an 84% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10 in response to the U.S.'s 104% tariff on Chinese goods. However, as noted earlier, Trump later raised tariffs on China even further—to 125%—while simultaneously suspending additional duties for dozens of other trade partners.

Global stock markets have experienced significant volatility and rallied sharply. Chinese and Hong Kong stock indices joined the surge as expectations for stimulus measures grew. The onshore yuan fell to its lowest level since 2007 before partially recovering on news of the planned meeting of Chinese leaders.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for China's GDP growth to 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, down from 4.5% and 4%, respectively. Citigroup Inc. also revised its forecast for this year to 4.2%, down from 4.7% earlier this week, citing limited prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal following the latest escalation.

Over the weekend, Chinese policymakers had already discussed whether to accelerate stimulus plans aimed at boosting consumption and implementing measures planned even before the new tariffs. Yesterday, China reiterated that it has sufficient capacity for accommodative policy, including lowering borrowing costs and reserve requirements for lenders to protect its economy.

The People's Bank of China is also expected to allow a moderate depreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar—by around 5–10% by the end of 2025—to provide greater monetary policy flexibility and help exporters cope with declining external demand.

As for the current EUR/USD technical outlook, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1020 level. Only this would allow them to aim for a test of 1.1090. From there, a climb to 1.1140 is possible, though it will be difficult to achieve without support from major players. The ultimate target is the 1.1215 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only near the 1.0945 level. If no interest appears there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.0890 low or consider opening long positions from 1.0845.

Regarding the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to regain control above the nearest resistance at 1.2870. Only then can they target 1.2930, though a breakout above that will be challenging. The ultimate upside target is the 1.2985 zone. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2810. If successful, breaking below that range would significantly weaken the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.2745 low, with potential to reach 1.2695.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.