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21.04.2025 07:15 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
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Gold continues to show strong demand, trading near its all-time high, just below the key psychological level of $3400. The hardline international trade policy pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump, along with growing fears of a U.S. recession and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, continues to weigh on investor sentiment. This, in turn, supports ongoing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Trump's recent imposition of tariffs—up to 145% on some Chinese goods and up to 245% on others—alongside China's retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. exports, has significantly increased global trade tensions. These developments raise the risk of a recession in the U.S., which further weakens the U.S. dollar, already trading at lows last seen in April 2022.

Trump's unpredictable tariff announcements are undermining confidence in the world's largest economy. Combined with expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, this creates an even more favorable environment for the growth of gold prices. Nonetheless, gold bulls may pause on short-term charts due to increasingly overbought conditions.

Despite hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. dollar bulls have failed to capitalize. Markets continue to price in the possibility of a full percentage point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate by the end of the year, further fueling gold's appeal.

Although recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and a one-day ceasefire in Ukraine announced by Vladimir Putin offer a glimmer of hope for reduced geopolitical tensions, these developments have not significantly improved investor confidence. Instead, demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold remains robust.

From a technical perspective, sustained buying confirms a positive short-term outlook for the precious metal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deep in overbought territory—well above the 70 mark—potentially prompting bulls to pause. It would be prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback before initiating new positions in anticipation of the continuation of the uptrend.

If a corrective decline occurs, initial support is seen around the $3350 zone, followed by the Asian session low near $3329–3330. A drop below this area would accelerate the decline toward the round level of $3300, and then potentially to Friday's low near $3284. This level is key—its breach could open the door to deeper losses.

No major economic data releases are expected on Monday that could significantly impact the market. However, a speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee could influence the dollar's trajectory. Traders should also watch Wednesday's PMI releases, which could provide new insights into the health of the global economy.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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