empty
24.04.2025 07:58 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 24th (Review of the Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1358 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. The pair did rise, but it didn't reach the retest of 1.1358, so I didn't enter any trades. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

The IFO data from Germany exceeded economists' forecasts, prompting a rise in the euro. However, buyers have so far only managed to halt the bearish trend, not reverse it in their favor.

In the second half of the day, we await figures on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales in the U.S. Only strong data will bring pressure back on EUR/USD, and I plan to use that.

In case of a decline, only a false breakout around the new support at 1.1335 would serve as a signal to buy EUR/USD with the prospect of resuming the bullish trend and a retest of 1.1415. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid long entry, with a move toward the 1.1487 area. The ultimate target will be 1.1571, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD declines and there's no activity around 1.1335, pressure on the euro will intensify, potentially triggering a deeper correction to 1.1267. I will only consider buying euro after a false breakout at that level. I also plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1206, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro climbs again after the U.S. data, bears will need to show strength near 1.1415, where the moving averages also favor sellers. Only a false breakout at this level will be a signal to enter short positions with the goal of returning to 1.1335 — the support formed earlier today. A breakout and consolidation below this range would justify a move toward 1.1267, marking a fairly strong correction. The ultimate target for sellers will be 1.1206, where I plan to take profit. A test of this level would break the current bullish structure.

If EUR/USD rises during the second half of the day and sellers fail to show activity near 1.1415, buyers may push the pair to a new high of 1.1487. I will only sell there if the price fails to hold. I also plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1571, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders):

The April 15 COT report showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short ones. As the EU and U.S. have yet to reach a trade deal, the euro continues to strengthen while the dollar weakens. Potential instability from Trump's attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair also continues to pressure the dollar. Long non-commercial positions rose by 6,807 to 197,103 and short non-commercial positions fell by 2,493 to 127,823. The gap between long and short positions narrowed by 2,493.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The author uses H1 hourly chart moving averages, which may differ from classical daily moving average values on a D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: If the pair declines, the lower band near 1.1335 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths out price fluctuations to identify trend direction. Periods: 50 (yellow), 30 (green)
  • MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Fast EMA: 12, Slow EMA: 26, Signal SMA: 9
  • Bollinger Bands: Measures volatility and possible price reversal points. Period: 20
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions trading futures for profit
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long positions held by speculators
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short positions held by speculators
  • Net non-commercial position: Difference between long and short positions held by speculators.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Buy
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined significantly in price, despite no macroeconomic or fundamental reasons. However, the downward trend

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 19: The Pound Feels Comfortable in a Flat Market

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair mainly traded downward throughout the day but closed with only a minor decline. This was mostly because the dollar weakened during the Asian session

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 19: The Dollar Struggles to Grow, but Still Does

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a slight decline on Friday. Although the 5-minute chart might suggest the pair spent the entire day in a downtrend, the U.S. dollar gained only

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-05-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also traded lower, although there were no objective reasons. While the euro maintains a downward trend

Paolo Greco 00:35 2025-05-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair showed minimal upward movement; however, the 5-minute timeframe indicates this was largely a sideways move

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions throughout Thursday. The macroeconomic background was rich, but it had no decisive impact

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 16: The Pound Decided to Take a Break

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded strictly sideways with low volatility. Despite a busy macroeconomic calendar, the market ignored most of the data, just as anticipated

Paolo Greco 03:54 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 16: The Market Has Once Again Confirmed the Obvious

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed only one thing—a complete unwillingness to move. We observed sideways movement throughout the day despite a fairly packed macroeconomic calendar. However, as mentioned

Paolo Greco 03:54 2025-05-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement throughout Wednesday, despite the absence of any specific fundamental reasons. The day before, a U.S

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair experienced upward movement for approximately half of Wednesday. The latest "surge" in the euro was particularly "impressive," although

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.