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25.04.2025 12:23 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
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Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level.

Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China, which supports a positive tone across equity markets. Combined with the moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, this has kept traders cautious about opening new long positions in the precious metal.

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that trade talks are ongoing, boosting optimism. However, China's Foreign Minister has denied that any current tariff negotiations with the U.S. are taking place, which is tempering market optimism and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The U.S. dollar is gaining support from positive macroeconomic data. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 222,000, indicating a resilient labor market. Additionally, durable goods orders in March jumped by 9.2%, significantly exceeding the 2% forecast. Transportation equipment rose for a third consecutive month, surging by 27%.

Amid these figures, Federal Reserve officials are discussing the possibility of rate cuts. According to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, such a cut could occur as early as June if compelling data on the economy emerges. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supports lowering rates if tariffs begin to negatively impact the labor market. Traders are still pricing in the likelihood of at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.

Geopolitical tensions also persist, helping to limit the decline in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the key resistance level stands at $3370. A successful breakout above this mark would open the path to $3400. A continued upward move could reach an interim barrier at $3425, above which bulls may attempt to reclaim the psychological level of $3500.

On the other hand, weakness below $3330 would lead to a decline toward the weekly low near $3260. A break below this level would open the door for a further drop toward $3230 and $3200. This would signal that the market has peaked and that the short-term bias is shifting in favor of the bears.

However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, bulls have not lost their strength.

Today, for better trading opportunities, it's worth watching the release of the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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