empty
25.04.2025 07:00 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 25th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1391 level and planned to make entry decisions around it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and assess what happened. The pair did rise, but it never reached the 1.1391 test level, so no trades were executed. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro failed to gain support amid a lack of statistical data and remained within a sideways channel. In the second half of the day, only the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations are scheduled for release—nothing else of importance—so I wouldn't expect significant movement. Only a major deviation from forecasts would cause a spike in volatility.

Only very strong data could bring back pressure on EUR/USD, which I intend to use as an entry opportunity. In case of a decline, a false breakout near the new support at 1.1315 would be a reason to buy EUR/USD, targeting a continuation of the bullish market with a view to update 1.1391. A breakout and retest of this range from above would confirm a valid long-entry point, pushing the pair toward 1.1435. The ultimate target remains 1.1487, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD drops and there's no activity around 1.1315, the pair will exit the sideways channel, likely triggering a sharper downward movement. In that case, bears could drag it down to 1.1267. Only after a false breakout forms there would I consider buying the euro. Otherwise, I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1206, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro rises after the U.S. data, bears will need to prove themselves near 1.1391—a level the pair failed to reach in the first half of the day. Just below are the moving averages, which currently favor sellers. Only a false breakout at that level will offer a short-entry opportunity targeting the 1.1315 support formed earlier today. A breakout and consolidation below this range would signal a good selling opportunity with a move toward 1.1267—already a significant correction. The final target would be 1.1206, where I plan to take profit. A test of this level would break the current bullish market.

If EUR/USD moves higher in the second half of the day and bears do not act near 1.1391, buyers could push the pair toward 1.1435. I will only sell after a failed consolidation at that level. If there's no downside momentum there either, I'll look for a short entry on a rebound from 1.1487 with a target of a 30–35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report from April 15, there was a rise in long positions and a reduction in shorts. Considering that the EU and the U.S. have yet to reach a trade agreement, the euro continues to strengthen while the dollar weakens. Ongoing concerns over Trump's attempts to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell also continue to pressure the dollar.

The report shows that long non-commercial positions rose by 6,807 to 197,103, while short positions fell by 2,493 to 127,823. As a result, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 2,493.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages Trading is taking place near the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market indecision.

Note: The author evaluates moving averages based on the hourly H1 chart, which differs from the standard daily D1 chart view.

Bollinger Bands In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1315 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (defines current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50 (yellow line on the chart);
  • Moving Average (same function). Period – 30 (green line on the chart);
  • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, SMA – 9;
  • Bollinger Bands. Period – 20;
  • Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions trading futures for speculative purposes;
  • Long non-commercial positions – total open long positions held by non-commercial traders;
  • Short non-commercial positions – total open short positions held by non-commercial traders;
  • Net non-commercial position – the difference between long and short non-commercial positions.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Buy
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3313 level and planned to make trading decisions from there. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down what

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:14 2025-05-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 2nd (Review of the Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1337 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:06 2025-05-02 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on May 2. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Trade Review). The Pound in a Difficult Position

Several entry points into the market were formed yesterday. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. I highlighted the 1.3282 level in my morning forecast

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:53 2025-05-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on May 2. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Trade Review). The Dollar Reacts to Any Positive Data

Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1320 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:53 2025-05-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement, although the overall picture still closely resembles a sideways range. The British pound

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement and reached the 1.1275 level by the end of the day, which

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 2: The Dollar Faces a Tough Test

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to correct downward following Monday's rally and against the broader uptrend. There was no reason to expect the kind of price action that ultimately unfolded

Paolo Greco 03:47 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 2: Third Consecutive Day of Dollar Strength

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild upward movement on Thursday. The ongoing rise of the U.S. dollar looks strange, but strange price behavior has become the norm in recent

Paolo Greco 03:47 2025-05-02 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 1st (Review of the Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3282 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:42 2025-05-01 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 1st (Review of the Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1320 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:38 2025-05-01 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.