empty
19.03.2024 01:30 PM
GBP/USD Forecast: Traders await BoE meeting

Today marked the conclusion of meetings of two of the world's major central banks, Japan and Australia. The decisions of both were in line with economists' forecasts, yet caused unexpected movements. Both the yen and the Australian dollar weakened after the central banks announced their policy decisions. While the Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, causing the Australian dollar to suffer losses, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0% for the first time since 2007, ending eight years of negative interest rates and abandoning its yield-curve control policy. Following the meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the bank would continue to purchase Japanese government bonds at the same volume as before. He also added that, if necessary, the regulator would consider options for broad easing, including those used in the past. These statements likely became a negative factor for the yen, which sharply weakened after the Bank of Japan's meeting.

The Australian dollar unexpectedly came under pressure, as mentioned earlier, despite reassuring statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock who expressed the need to be much more confident about inflation coming down to consider a rate cut. Here, investors likely paid attention to Bullock's statement that despite "encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain," fueling talks that the RBA might soon start easing its monetary policy as well.

After the meetings of the BoJ and RBA, market participants will await the Federal Reserve's meeting, whose outcome is due on Wednesday. Nearly all economists are confident that the Fed will refrain from any changes in its monetary policy parameters. Meanwhile, investors are hoping that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will signal the timing of the start of its easing monetary policy cycle. However, given the recently published US inflation data, which recorded an acceleration instead of the expected slowdown, Powell may speak in favor of a later start to the easing cycle, not ruling out the possibility of an interest rate increase. In this case, the dollar is expected to resume gains, with its DXY index rising above the 104.00 mark.

At the time of preparing this article, the DXY was near the 103.63 mark, supported by the persisting yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds above the 4.30% mark.

On Thursday, the central banks of Switzerland and the United Kingdom will hold their meetings. Both currencies issued by these banks, the Swiss franc and the pound sterling, remain under pressure against the US dollar today.

This image is no longer relevant

Economists do not expect changes in the monetary policy parameters of the SNB and the Bank of England. At the same time, they do not rule out that BoE officials might signal an earlier start to the cycle of reducing borrowing costs than the markets currently estimate. Despite the still high level of inflation in the UK, it is slowing down. The next set of inflation data for the UK will be published on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly affect the regulator's policy decision. According to preliminary estimates, the annual consumer price index in February slowed down from 4.0% to 3.5%, and the core CPI eased from 5.1% to 4.6%. The annual retail price index to be released at the same time is estimated to have slowed down from 4.9% to 4.5% in February.

If statistics confirm a slowdown in UK inflation, and even if the Bank of England keeps its interest rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday, the British pound is expected to lose value due to the high likelihood of dovish accompanying statements from BoE leaders, signaling an imminent easing of monetary policy.

In this case, the GBP/USD pair will most likely extend losses to the key support level of 1.2560, separating the medium-term bull market from the bear one. Technical indicators on the daily price chart also indicate the dominance of sellers (for more details, see GBP/USD: trading scenarios on March 19, 2024).

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 19 de mayo. ¿Qué esperar de la inflación en EE. UU.?

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó el viernes su movimiento lateral, que ya se observa desde hace un mes. En principio, en la ilustración del marco temporal de 4 horas

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 19 de mayo. La guerra comercial frena al dólar.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció con caídas mínimas durante la jornada del viernes, con una volatilidad en general a la baja tras un «abril loco» La divisa estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD. En la trampa del rango lateral

El par euro-dólar sigue cotizando dentro de un rango estrecho, reaccionando de forma débil a acontecimientos fundamentales importantes. Por tercer día consecutivo, los compradores de EUR/USD intentan volver

Irina Manzenko 12:47 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 15 de mayo. El calvario del dólar continúa.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su crecimiento el miércoles, que había comenzado el martes. Recordemos que el martes el mercado no tenía ninguna razón de peso para deshacerse masivamente

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 15 de mayo. La fe del mercado en el dólar está por el suelo.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su recuperación durante el miércoles en un contexto de calendario macroeconómico absolutamente vacío. Ni siquiera destacamos el único informe del día sobre la inflación

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de mayo. Solo importa el tratado comercial.

El lunes, la moneda estadounidense se fortaleció considerablemente tras el éxito en la primera ronda de negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China, aunque, en esencia, ambas partes solo acordaron

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de mayo. La música no duró mucho.

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo prácticamente todo el martes en una tendencia alcista. Uno se acostumbra rápido a lo bueno, y el mercado claramente esperaba una continuación del fortalecimiento

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.