empty
10.10.2024 01:09 PM
EUR/USD. October 10th. Nothing Is Stopping the Bears from Continuing Their Attack

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline and entered the support zone of 1.0929–1.0946. This zone is not providing significant support to the price. This suggests a possible consolidation below this level, followed by a further decline toward the next corrective level of 161.8% at 1.0873. If there is a rebound from the 1.0929 level, growth towards the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1003 is possible. The trend remains bearish, which is evident.

This image is no longer relevant

The situation with the waves has become more complex in recent weeks, but it remains generally clear. The last completed upward wave (September 25-30) did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the lows of the previous three waves. Thus, the pair has now started forming a new bearish trend. In the near future, we may see a corrective wave, but the bulls have already lost their market initiative.

The information background on Wednesday was very weak. A few weeks ago, the bears needed support to stop the pair's growth. Now, the bulls need some form of support to halt the pair's decline. The situation has completely reversed. Yesterday's FOMC minutes emphasized several key points. First, the decision to cut the rate by 0.50% in September was not unanimous. Second, the minutes showed that a 0.50% cut is not a "normal step" for the Fed. Third, these minutes are of minimal importance as they pertain to events from two weeks ago. Thus, the nature of the minutes was more formal, and traders may have reviewed them due to their formal nature rather than practical impact. The decision regarding a rate change at the next meeting will depend on inflation and labor market data. Today, the inflation report is expected, and early next month, labor market data will be released. The FOMC will make its decision based on these data points.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a series of bearish divergences on the RSI and CCI indicators. The RSI had also entered the overbought territory several weeks ago. The pair has recently declined to the 61.8% corrective level at 1.0935. Consolidation below this level could lead traders to expect further decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.0872. Both indicators currently suggest that bullish divergences are emerging.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, speculators closed 9,522 long positions and opened 6,849 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bearish several months ago, but currently, the bulls are once again in control. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 178,000, while short positions amount to just 123,000.

However, for the fourth consecutive week, large players have been offloading the European currency. In my view, this could be a precursor to a new bearish trend or at least a correction. The key factor for the dollar's previous decline—expectations of Fed policy easing—has played out, and there are no more reasons for the dollar to fall. While new factors could emerge over time, for now, the growth of the U.S. dollar seems more likely. Chart analysis also indicates the start of a bearish trend. Thus, I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair.

Economic Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

  • US – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • US – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On October 10, the economic calendar includes two entries; the U.S. inflation report is particularly significant. This is a very important report, and the market's reaction could be substantial. Therefore, I expect increased trader activity tomorrow.

Forecast for EUR/USD and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair was possible upon closing below the 1.1139 level on the 4-hour chart with targets at 1.1081, 1.1070, 1.1013, and 1.0984. All targets were reached. A consolidation below the 1.0929 level allows for new sales with a target of 1.0873. I would consider buying the pair on a rebound from the 1.0873 level.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.1139–1.0603 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.