empty
14.04.2025 12:28 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but pulled back in the second half of the day. The decline (i.e., dollar strengthening) was short-lived, and by the end of Friday, the US dollar had once again posted significant losses. The current market situation suggests there is nothing stopping the dollar from continuing its decline on a daily basis. The informational backdrop is simply too strong for traders to pause midway. At the same time, over the weekend, there were no new aggressive signals from Trump, which could lead to reduced trading activity.

This image is no longer relevant

The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the prior high. This currently indicates the continuation of a bullish trend. Donald Trump continues to introduce new import tariffs, and markets remain gripped by panic and chaos. Bulls re-entered the market last week, and there are clear and logical reasons for that.

The news backdrop on Friday was much weaker than in the previous days. Trump, of course, raised tariffs on Chinese goods to an unthinkable 145%, and China responded by increasing its own tariffs to 125%. However, it seems these figures may mark the upper limit. Any further increase would appear absurd or comical and lack practical sense. Personally, I believe both sides will eventually sit down at the negotiating table. The only question is when. If Trump refrains from raising tariffs on China this week, the dollar might find some temporary relief.

Remember, Trump can only impose new tariffs against China right now, as he has granted a 90-day pause to all other countries. So, this week, the dollar might see some improvement. Still, the US–China trade war is such a significant event that it's impossible to be fully confident that the market has already priced everything in.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495. The trade war, in the full sense of the word, has only just begun. Therefore, I cannot forecast a rise or fall in the pair solely based on the current data. Movements will depend entirely on the news backdrop, which may continue to flow in a steady stream this week. The bullish trend remains intact. A bounce from the 1.1495 level would suggest a potential reversal in favor of the US currency and a moderate decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 7,049 long positions and closed 1,096 short positions. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group has recently turned bullish again – thanks to Donald Trump. Total long positions held by speculators now amount to 190,000 and total short positions are at 130,000.

For 20 weeks straight, large players were shedding euro positions, but for the past 9 weeks, they've been reducing short positions and building long ones. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still supports the US dollar, but Trump's policies are now a more influential factor for traders. His actions may push the Fed toward a more dovish stance and potentially trigger a recession in the US economy.

News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

On April 14, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment may be minimal on Monday — unless new tariff announcements emerge over the weekend. Such headlines remain the main market driver right now.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Buy or sell opportunities for the pair today should be considered only if clear signals appear around key levels on the hourly chart. However, I'd like to stress again that movements will mostly depend on the news background, not the technical setup.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.